Just look up Washington State QB Ryan Leaf taken in the 1st round, second pick overall by the Chargers ,only to become one of the biggest NFL draft bust of all time. Or offensive tackle Tony Mandarich who came out of Michigan State and aced all the test. He was touted by Sports Illustrated as the best offensive line prospect ever. The Packers drafted him with the 2nd pick overall in the first round in the 1989 draft only to cut him by1991. The list of draft busts are long. Just take a look at any 1st round draft class and you will find many more misses then hits.